Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Morning Note

July 20, 2011

Equity futures are trading above fair value lifted by strong results from Apple (AAPL) and after President Obama hailed progress on debt talks. President Barack Obama cited "some progress" in debt talks hailing a plan by a group of bipartisan senators to cut the budget deficit and raise the debt limit.

Yesterday, after the European close, the IMF called on Europe for immediate measures to strengthen the financial system through adequate capitalization and a strong follow up to the stress-test. The IMF emphasized the need to stem contagion through a cohesive and cooperative approach, noting that delays in resolving the crisis could be costly for the euro area and the global economy.

Libor fixings 

- Overnight Libor: Dollar: 0.122% vs prior 0.122% ; Sterling: 0.564% vs prior 0.564%; Euro: 1.0975% vs prior 1.376%
- 1-month Libor: Dollar: 0.187% vs prior 0.186% ; Sterling: 0.631% vs prior 0.631%; Euro: 1.393% vs prior 1.411%
- 3-month Libor: Dollar: 0.253% vs prior 0.252% ; Sterling: 0.830% vs prior 0.829%; Euro: 1.548% vs prior 1.554%

Portugal T-Bill auction 
Sells €450M 3M T-Bills, average yield 4.982% vs prior auction 4.926%, bid-to-cover 2.4 vs prior 2.0
Sells €300M 6M T-Bills, average yield 4.960% vs prior 4.954%, bid-to-cover 3.7 vs prior 3.8

API crude inventories reported (5.179M) vs. Reuters (1.7M).
gasoline inventories +1.957M vs. Reuters (100K)
distillate inventories +1.070M vs. Reuters +1.3M

Sep WTI crude +$1.05 to $98.89

Natural gas +$0.035 to $4.568

Gold +$1.50 to $1588.40

10-year yield 2.9275%
30-year yield 4.2246%

Asian Markets

Most Asian markets followed Wall Street up this morning as good results and strong housing start numbers buoyed the US. Tech stocks rose on strong results from Apple (AAPL), and financials went up on news that politicians in the US made some progress in talks to raise the country’s debt limit. Tech-heavy Taiwan led the region, rising 2%. Australia rose 1.8% as commodity prices rose overnight. BHP Billiton (BHP.AU) rose 1.9% on reporting record output in several commodities. News Corp (NWS.AU) rose after chairman/CEO Rupert Murdoch told the British Parliament that he wasn’t responsible for the phone-hacking scandal and he didn’t plan to resign. Korea was also strong, rising 1.2% with tech stocks once again leading the charge. Shipbuilding was one of the few sectors down with Daewoo Shipbuilding (042660.KS) falling 5% despite denying a report that it is looking to buy a Canadian shipyard. Hong Kong was up slightly at 0.5. China meandered around the unchanged mark with weakness in commodity stocks. The yen is trading at 78.94 to the US dollar.

European Markets

European equity markets rose in a broad-based advance that saw all sectors trading higher. Strong gains on Wall Street on hopes of a deal on the US deficit, generally higher Asian markets and constructive corporate results including Apple (AAPL) up +3.9% in Germany buoyed sentiment, with peripheral debt spreads and CDS's continuing to improve ahead of the EU leaders summit tomorrow. Basic resources +1.6%, financial services +1.4% and banks +1.1% lead gainers, whilst healthcare +0.2%, telecom +0.4% and personal and household products +0.5% lead laggards. Germany Jun PPI +5.6% vs consensus +5.5% and prior +6.1%. BOE MPC Committee minutes say recent developments had reduced the likelihood that a tightening in policy would be warranted in the near term voted 7-2 to keep rates at 0.5%, Dale and Weale voted for +25bps as they did in Jun voted 8-1 to keep QE at £200B, Posen voted for +£50B as he did in June. The pound and the euro are trading at $1.6108 and $1.4183 respectively

Today's Economic Releases (Eastern Time)

02:00 Germany Jun PPI +5.6% vs consensus +5.5% and prior +6.1%
04:30 UK BOE MPC minutes (Jul); members voted 7-2 to keep rates at 0.5%, as they did in June.
07:00 US MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications (15-Jul); (0.1%) in 15-Jul week; total market index +15.5%. compares to (2.6%) and (5.1%), respectively, in the prior week. refi index +23.1% vs. (6.2%)
30-year contract ARM rate (1)bp to 4.54%
10:00 US Existing Home Sales (Jun); consensus 4.91M
10:30 US DOE Crude Inventories (15-Jul); consensus n/a
22:30 China PMI Manufacturing (Jul); consensus n/a 

Today's Key Events (Eastern Time)

09:00 Dynavax call regarding top line phase 3 data and Q2 financial results: 877.280.7280 or 707.287.9365
—:— American Society for Virology - ASV
—:— EU Commission proposes to enhance prudential requirements and corporate governance of banks and investment firms
—:— FDA PDUFA: AstraZeneca's Class 2 Resubmission of NDA for Brilinta (Ticagrelor tablets) for Acute Coronary Syndrome
—:— FOSE Conference and Expo
—:— Stifel Nicolaus with FuelCell Energy
—:— VMWare Forum 

Company Specific News

AAPL (Apple reports Q3 EPS $7.79 vs Reuters $5.85. Reports Q3: Revenues $28.57B vs Reuters $24.98B)
ALTR (Altera reports Q2 EPS $0.65 vs Reuters $0.64. Reports Q2: Revenues $548.4M vs Reuters $545.9M)
AMR (AMR Corp reports Q2 EPS ($0.85) vs Reuters ($0.78). Reports Q2:
Revenues $6.11B vs Reuters $6.13B)
ANH (Anworth Mortgage reports Q2 core EPS $0.24 vs Reuters $0.25. Reports Q2: Net interest rate spread of 1.71%. At June 30, 2011, our book value was $7.06 per share.)
ATR (AptarGroup reports Q2 EPS $0.74 vs Reuters $0.75; announces 22% dividend increase and additional 4M share repurchase. Reports Q2:
Revenues $615.0M vs Reuters $568.1M)
CCK (Crown Holdings reports Q2 EPS $0.84 ex-items vs Reuters $0.82. Reports Q2: Revenues $2.28B vs Reuters $2.19B)
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill reports Q2 EPS $1.64 ex-items. Reports Q2: Reuters estimate is $1.68 EPS excluded impacted a pre-tax charge of $2.4M, or a diluted EPS impact of $0.05. Revenues $571.6M vs Reuters $558.3M)
CTAS (Cintas reports Q4 EPS $0.49 vs Reuters $0.43. Reports Q4: Revenues $1.01B vs Reuters $938.4M)
HST (Host Hotels & Resorts reports Q2 FFO $0.30 vs Reuters $0.29. Reports Q2: Revenues $1.30B vs Reuters $1.24B)
ICLR (ICON plc reports Q2 EPS $0.21 vs Reuters $0.22. Reports Q2: Revenues $233.0M vs Reuters $229.9M)
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical reports Q2 EPS $2.91 vs Reuters $2.71. Reports Q2:
Revenues $425.7M vs Reuters $410.4M)
KCG (Knight Capital reports Q2 EPS $0.19 vs Reuters $0.20. Reports Q2:
Revenues $326.0M vs Reuters $283.2M)
SYK (Stryker reports Q2 EPS $0.90 vs Reuters $0.90. Reports Q2: Revenues $2.05B vs Reuters $2.01B)
URI (United Rentals reports Q2 EPS $0.40 vs Reuters $0.43. Reports Q2:
Revenues $629.0M vs Reuters $632.9M)
WCN (Waste Connections reports Q2 EPS $0.39 vs Reuters $0.38. Reports Q2:
Revenues $390.2M vs Reuters $382.5M)

BPL (Buckeye Partners acquires refined petroleum products terminals and pipeline in Maine)
NLC (Ecolab to acquire Nalco for $5B)

CBIO (Cathay Industrial Biotech files for $200M IPO through Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and Jefferies)
GOV (Government Properties Income Trust announces 5M share secondary offering through Morgan Stanley, BofA/ML and RBC)
SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT files amended S-11; to offer 9.5M shares through Jefferies and Citi)
Z (Zillow 3.5M share IPO priced at $20 per share through Citi)

Other News
BHP (BHP Billiton reports for the quarter ended 30-June:
petroleum products (boe) 43.25M; +6% y/y
alumina 1.026M tonnes; +7% y/y
aluminium 313K tonnes; +1% y/y
copper 272.3K tonnes; (6%) y/y
lead 58.6K tonnes; (7%) y/y
zinc 34.7K tonnes; (24%) y/y silver 9.9M ounces; (13%) y/y
uranium oxide concentrate 1,015 tonnes; +43% y/y
diamonds 576K carats; (22%) nickel 38.2K tonnes; (16%) y/y
iron ore 35.5M tonnes; 14% y/y
maganese ore 1.8M tonnes; +4% y/y
maganese alloy 190K tonnes; (13%) y/y
metallurgical coal 7.9M tonnes; (28%) y/y
energy coal 18.3M tonnes; +13% y/y)

Newspaper Article / Headlines

- Bug Music for sale, seeking $330-400M. A person with knowledge of the matter says the music publisher has seen interest from both private equity and strategic buyers. First-round bids are due next week.

Daily Mail
- Thameslink rolling-stock contract could still go to Bombardier. The article doesn't really live up to the headline. In an interview, a Bombardier executive tells the Daily Mail that if the government chooses not to work with Siemens (SIE.GR), then Bombardier would rise from its current position of second-in-line.

De Tijd
- ING Group to sell Belgian insurance units. De Tijd reports that indicative bids are expected within days.

Economic Times
- Cognizant Technology accused in court of abusing H-1B visas. A Cognizant spokesman says the suit filed in Los Angeles by employees laid off from Molina Healthcare (MOH) has no merit. The suit also accuses Molina of discriminating in favor of Indians over Americans.

Financial Times
- American order could be more than 620 planes. People familiar with the widely-reported deal tell the FT it will include: firm orders for more than 250 A320s and A320neos from Airbus (EAD.FP), firm orders for about 150 737s from Boeing (BA), and options for more than 220 more planes.
- EU report against German betting plans. The FT, citing a confidential report, says that the federal states' plan seems "to limit the freedom to provide services”.
- Playtech to supply software to Gala software. The FT, citing people familiar with the company, reports that the company has secured a 10-year deal with Gala to provide it with all its online betting technology
the deal is worth up to €5M pa in pre-tax profit the deal will be announced in the company's quarterly update today European time.
- The FT discussses Tesco's US ventures. The FT, citing deputy CEO Tim Mason, reports that Fresh & Easy has so far lost gbp574M and used gbp800m of capital to tey and break-even by end of FY2012, the company is overhauling its stores and trialling the Clubcard loyalty scheme he believes the USP is fresh fruit and vegetables and fresh prepared meals but this was not reflected in stores the company will aim for 214 stores by end Feb from 176 now and will look at smaller-format stores-3-5K sq ft
- BAA may challenge sell-off ruling. The FT, citing Colin Matthews, CEO of BAA reports that he is "dismayed" by the result the world and BAA has changed since the original decision in 2009 and he will now consider a judicial review.
The article continues that the company has two months to make a decision or start the sale process in three months.
- Spanish consortium wins €7B Saudi contract. The FT, citing people briefed on the talks, reports that diplomats in Jeddah had informed the Spanish government on monday of the win made up of 11 companies including OHL (OHL.SM). The French group, including Alstom (ALO.FP) lost out on the bid.
- Spanish consortium complains that French consortium is breaking rules of engagement on bidding for €7B Mecca-Medina "pilgrim train" contract.
- Value of construction on new developments fell 34% y/y in H1. The FT, citing stats complied for it by Glenigan, a construction service information group, reports that the value of new developments dropped from £3.8B to £2.5B for H1. The article notes that the number of nerw homes built is up y/y but the focus is developing existing sites as not enough certainty to open up new sites

Globe and Mail
- SNC-Lavalin Group, partners hope to bid for shipbuilding contracts from Canadian federal government. The Globe and Mail reports that SNC-Lavalin will partner with Upper Lakes Group and "Daewoo", who are negotiating for financial aid to purchase the bankrupt Davie Yards. In all likelihood, if the purchase does not go through, the bid won't, either. The National Shipbuilding Procurement Strategy deadline is 21-Jul, and C$35B of contracts are involved.

Irish Times
- "Strong possibility" that Irish Life & Permanent shareholders will reject recapitalisation resolution despite board's recommendation. Citing a source close to the company, the Irish Times reports that passing the resolution this morning (20-Jul in Europe) basically amounts to a coin flip. The proposed €3.8B recapitalisation would leave Ireland with 99% of the bank, wiping out shareholders.

Le Soir
- Deutsche Telecom (DTE.GR) interested in Belgacom's stake owned by the Belgium government. Citing sources, the newspaper reports that theBelgium state has told Deutsche Telekom that the stake is not for sale but that talks may be initiated once the institutional crisis in Belgium has been resolved. The newspaper notes that this stake is highly strategic and its sale by the Belgium state has never been on the agenda.

New York Times
- News Corp UK scandals raises US awareness of Big Media. The NYT reports that the scandal is giving ammunition to activists and public interest groups as well as giving Democrats the opportunity to question the power of media moguls. The article notes that although the FCC sad it regarded the hacking scandal as isolated in the UK, it could still be influenced by public perception as is happening in the UK.

- Mitsui & Company (8031.JP), Dow Chemical (DOW) to build bioplastics plant in Brazil. The Nikkei reports that starting in 2013, the companies will build a production complex for plant-derived plastics; mass production will start in 2015. Total investment is expected to exceed $2B, and Mitsui will invest $200M to become an equal partner in a Dow subsidiary.

Wall Street Journal
- WSJ is cautious on Cheerios (GIS), Frosted Flakes (K), Grape-Nuts (RAH). A "Heard on the Street" column warns that Coke (KO), which said yesterday it will raise North American prices 3-4% in H2, and Pepsi (PEP) have pricing power that cereal-makers simply don't. In the face of higher input costs, it looks as though such companies will be forced to choose between maintaining margins and maintaining market share.
- WSJ is cautious on Goldman Sachs. A "Heard on the Street" column says the stock price is unlikely to move up as long as the company continues to reward its employees substantially more than both the new banking norm and its shareholders.
- WSJ advises against holding breath for next big oil takeover/breakup. A "Heard on the Street" column says that there were special reasons for the recently announced breakup of ConocoPhillips (COP) and takeover of Petrohawk (HK) by BHP Billiton (BLT.LN), and there is no reason to assume that similar deals are pending in the sector.
- WSJ is positive on Land Securities. A "Heard on the Street" column says that even though the shares have already risen strongly this year, it is likely to continue up on the strength of additional door openings by strong retailers.
- News Corp retains lawyer with extensive experience with Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. People familiar with the matter tell the WSJ that News Corp has hired Mark Mendelsohn, but it is not clear that US officials have determined that News of the World's actions constitute bribery.
- Baidu launches internet browser. The WSJ reports that the company Monday started offering beta versions of its browser the layout looks similar to google's (GOOG) chrome but has a home page linking to popular websites and apps.
- Banks consider bidding for parts of Anglo Irish Bank's US real-estate portfolio. People familiar with the matter tell the WSJ that Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR), Goldman Sachs (GS), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are among the possible bidders. Bank of America (BAC) and Citi (C) may finance bids from private equity firms including Blackstone (BX) and BlackRock (BLK). Bids on the loans, which have a $9.5B face value, are due in the second week of August.


Cowen & Co: upgraded NWSA
Credit Suisse: upgraded VMW
Goldman Sachs: upgraded ISRG, MON
Jefferies: upgraded WINN, AOS, RTN
RW Baird: upgraded RVBD, GPRO
Wells Fargo: upgraded BBG, CMG; downgraded HTLD

VMW - Raising ests, tgt fm $110 to $125.after ELA renewal cycle drives upside amid strong int'l growth & vShere adoption.
RVBD - Lowering ests, tgt fm $50 to $40 after miss due to Euro weakness, but strong guidance = robust Nor Amer pipeline. Buy.
ISRG - Raising ests, tgt fm $422 to $429 after beat / raise on 30% procedure growth & robot unit upside.
SYK - Raising ests after rev beat on stronger hip ortho & patient handling biz, but mgns disappoint, largely due to currency & ASP declines.
FRX - Lowering ests on weaker Savella sales. Qtr largely inline, but 8/18 sharehold vote for Bd of Dir's overshadows fundamentals.
ANH - Lowering ests on lower future reinvestment rates & resettling of coupons for seasoned ARM's.. Stock is dead money near term.
Healthcare Facilities - Expect weak econ backdrop & sluggish volumes/mix. UHS & HCA remain top picks . THC cheapest in group @ 5x 2012E EV/EBITDA , laza

Bank of America probably won't have to raise new capital, says We
lls Fargo - After Bank of America reported Q2 adjust
Bank of America probably won't have to raise new capital, says Wells Fargo - Aft
er Bank of America reported Q2 adjust

Bank of America probably won't have to raise new capital,  says Wells Fargo -
After Bank of America reported Q2 adjusted EPS that was at the high end of
its guidance, Wells Fargo thinks the bank can meet international capital
requirements by late 2014 without issuing more stock. The firm believes that
the market is overly discounting a capital raise and it maintains an
Outperform rating on the stock.

Focus Items
Monsanto Co. (MON) Buy: Regaining momentum, raising PT, adding to
Conviction List 1
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG): Thesis broken - more legs to the story than
contemplated; Neutral 2
UnitedHealth Group (UNH): What we were looking for in the right amount 3
Americas: Communication Services: Cable/Sat preview: Seasonal pressures, Buy
CMCSA as metrics lead 4
Taubman Centers, Inc. (TCO): First Take: Strong 2Q as mall sales reach new
milestone 5
VMware, Inc. (VMW): 2Q2011 Results: On the edge of glory, reiterate Buy 6
Apple Inc. (AAPL): iOS devices drive significant 3Q beat, welcoming the post-PC
era 7 @ gs

1. Twenty-eight banks would face capital surcharges if international rules to rein in too-big-to- fail lenders were applied today. HSBC, C, DB and BNP Paribas may face the highest additional capital requirements. Other lenders that may be subject to the highest surcharge include BAC, JPM, BCS, & RBS. Banks that fail to meet the surcharge rules face curbs on paying out dividends.
2. Global regulators� decision to stop banks using contingent convertible bonds to meet planned capital rules may cut the market for the securities by about half.
? E.U.�
1. European officials are considering steps previously rejected by Germany, including the use of precautionary credit lines, to prevent the spread of the region�s debt crisis.
2. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou says Europe�s leaders need to show tomorrow that they can resolve the EU debt crisis to avoid a contagion enveloping Italy and Spain.
? EUROPEAN BONDS� Spanish and Italian bonds rallied ahead of the EU summit.
? U.S.A.�
1. the U.S. is close to a debt-ceiling compromise.
2. President Obama will renew talks at the White House this week, praised bipartisan Senate proposal for a $3.7t debt-cutting plan.
? CHINA� China said that it can allow more yuan moves without jeopardizing its foreign-exchange reserves after letting the currency rise today to a 17-year high against the dollar.
? B.O.E.� BOE Voted 7-2 as Majority Saw Less Need for Near-Term Rate Rise
? CANADA-- Canadians banks, ranked the soundest in the world, aren�t on a list of 28 lenders that could face capital surcharges if too-big-to-fail rules were applied today.
? RUSSIA� The ruble is tracking oil more closely than ever, underscoring the difficulties Russia is having in cutting the economy�s reliance on the commodity.
? U.K.-- U.K. Lawmakers Criticize Police, News Corp. Over Phone Hacking
? SOMALIA� The UN declared a famine in two regions of Somalia  amid drought and conflict that have left 3.7MM people, almost half the country�s population, in need of humanitarian assistance.
? SERBIA-- Serbia Captures Last Remaining War Crimes Fugitive Hadzic

? MORTGAGES� The U.S. Treasury Department is exploring a plan that could help 1MM or more homeowners avoid foreclosure. The proposal is aimed at promoting modifications of delinquent or defaulted home loans, including write downs of principal.
1. Ecolab to Buy Nalco for $5.4 Billion to Add Water Treatment
2. Cnooc to Acquire Failed Opti Canada to Add Oil Sands Assets
3. Zillow Raises $69.2 Million in IPO, Pricing Shares Above Range
4. Wisconsin Borrowing Costs Fall on Curbs to Unions
? BAC� Moynihan�s No-New-Capital Stance Draws Scrutiny After BAC Loss
? BLK-- the world�s biggest money manager, said second-quarter profit increased 43% as fees climbed along with the assets it oversees for investors.
? CRUDE� The Dodd-Frank Act , aims for the first time to bring transparency to oil derivatives as part of new rules for the $601T global swaps market. The CFTC & SEC are writing new regulations designed to limit risk and boost transparency after the largely unregulated trading in derivatives helped fuel the 2008 credit crisis.
1. Oil Gains a Second Day on Shrinking Crude Stockpiles
2. Copper Drops
3. Soybeans surge to the highest level since 2008.
4. Corn Gains for Second Day
5. Coffee Falls
6. Sugar Rises
7. Japan Can�t Rule Out Possibility Contaminated Beef Was Exported
8. Zinc Trades Near Three-Month High
9. Rice From India at $400 a Ton May Cut Global Prices
10. Rubber Supply Tightness to Last Until 2018
11. Ethanol Rebounding on Tax Credit
? AAPL� Apple, the world�s second-biggest company by market value, said profit more than doubled last quarter. Apple Shares Jump After IPhone, IPad Sales Fuel Profit
? AMR-- agreed to buy 460 single-aisle jets from Airbus & BA in the industry�s biggest-ever order that lets Airbus break BA�s two-decade hold over the U.S. airline.
? NOK-- Nokia�s Handset Sales Slump May Cut Into $9 Billion Cash
? UTX� Sees Year EPS $5.35-$5.45, Saw $5.25-$5.40, Est. $5.44
? CMG-- Chipotle Profit Trails Analysts� Estimates as Costs Rise
? MO� Altria Wages Last-Ditch Fight to Keep Tax Dodge Found �Abusive�
? FUTURES�1328.50, PLUS 7.30.
? OVERSOLD: 150.

networking, saying today it's buying privately held Force10 Networks. DELL
calls Force10 a leader in high-performance data-center networks and notes
technology complements its data-center offerings -- a big area of DELL's
focus as it moves away from its core PC operations. Force10 purchase isn't
quite the news Brocade (BRCD) investors wanted to hear. BRCD, which also
provides networking, had often been mentioned as a target for DELL. BRCD
slips 4% to $6.04 premarket. DELL off a fraction at $17.45.

Watch Caterpillar, Terex on Weak June Architecture Billings Data
2011-07-20 12:32:55.180 GMT

By Arie Shapira
     July 20 (Bloomberg) -- June Architecture Billings Index
(ABI) fell to 46.3 vs May 47.2, 4th consecutive decline; reflects continued decrease in demand for design servies.
  * New projects inquiry index rose to 58.1 vs May 52.6; highest
    reading in 3 months
  * American Institute of Architects Chief Economist Kermit
    Baker: �This seems to be a case of not thinking it can get
    any worse - and then it does�
  * Baker on consequences of U.S. default: �We are likely
    looking at a catastrophic situation for a sector that
    accounts for more than 10% of overall GDP�
  * Stocks w/ U.S. construction exposure to watch include CAT,
  * Earnings watch: URI last night, TEX tonight, RRR 7/21
    postmkt, CAT 7/22 premkt
  * NOTE: Above 50 indicates increase in billings; below 50
    indicates contraction. Commercial construction typically
    follows billings index by 9-12 mos: AIA ABI table:

Trader Commentary:
Yesterday�s rally caused a major change in the breadth with the Up Volume Ratio surging to 80% (80% of all the volume on the NYSE was in stocks that closed higher on the day)�1328 big level of resistance on the S&P a break above that could push us to 1340.30 (76.4% FIBO of May top to June bottom)�support will be
1323.47 (61.8% FIBO) see what the 10AM Existing homes # brings street looking for 4.9M for June +1.9% MoM... laza

Skullcandy 9.4M share IPO priced at $20.00 - The deal size was in
creased to 9.442M shares from 8.49M shares and priced
Skullcandy 9.4M share IPO priced at $20.00 - The deal size was increased to 9.44
2M shares from 8.49M shares and priced

Skullcandy 9.4M share IPO priced at $20.00 - The deal size was increased to
9.442M shares from 8.49M shares and priced above the $17.00-$19.00 range.
BofA/Merrill and Morgan Stanley acted as joint book running managers for the

According to, a strong report from AAPL when the Nasdaq is near a high usually does not produce sustained momentum. In fact, there has typically been a substantial pullback in the month that follows. According to SentimenTrader, "There have been 11 times since 1997 that Apple gapped up by more than 3% the morning after earnings, when the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) was within 3% of a 52-week high. During the next month, the NDX dropped at least -2% every time, at least -4% eight times and at least -9% six times." 


 *Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow! 

 No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.


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