DeMark Says S&P 500 May Peak Above 1,250 This Week, Decline 5.6%

DeMark Says S&P 500 May Peak Above 1,250 This Week, Decline 5.6%
   
S&P 500 may advance as high as 1,254 before falling at least 5.6%, technical analyst Tom DeMark wrote in an e-mail today.

This rally should squeeze short sellers and exhaust late buying: DeMark; The rally should be fast.

DeMark's prediction last month that the S&P's decline would stop at 1,076 proved prescient, it bottomed at 1,074.77

S&P would produce sell signal today by closing above its Oct. 12 close of 1,207.25, marking 9th consecutive day the benchmark exceeded its final price four days earlier: DeMark

Close above 2-mo. high of 1,224.58 reached on Oct. 14 would "perfect" the sell setup:


-DeMark


http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/


*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow! 


 No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.

Morning Note

August 2, 2011

Equity futures indicate a lower opening following yesterday's disappointing ISM number and continued worries over potential US sovereign debt- downgrade.

The debt ceiling deal passes in House with more support than expected. The Senate will vote on debt deal at 12 EST. Given the size of the deal, the question remains whether S&P (or the other rating agencies) still cut the US credit rating.

Italian and Spanish yields hit new highs relative to German Bund yields – yesterday’s sell off blamed on concern that EFSF does not have enough funding.

Skills For Gaining Control

 This is a follow up post to "Getting to Know Your Intersections"


Skills for Gaining Control


When you're trading with a green light consistantly keep doing what you're doing or think about sizing up or trading more markets.  But I'm not writing about that now.  Today I want to focus on what to do when you're trading with a yellow light or even worse a red light.   When you've lost control or are about to lose control its imparitive to your wealth and mental capital you get back to your green light.  The following ideas I've taken from athletes like Michael Jordan, coaches like Phil Jackson, various articles I've read over the years on performing at a high level, and various traders I respect. 

Weekend Watch: Tax Loophole for Futures Traders

Andrew Ross Sorkin on the very advantageous tax rate of 23% futures traders pay on gains. Change could be on the table during debt ceiling negotiations in Washington.




http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/ *Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow! No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.

Morning Note

July 15, 2011

Equity futures are modestly above fair value as the news that S&P had put US government debt on credit watch negative, and more tightening measures on the property market coming out of China, hurt sentiment. Asia came off its lows during the trading day, and US futures have risen off earlier lows.

Morning Note

July 13, 2011

Equity futures are trading above fair value as European indices and the Euro bounce, on the absence of any bad news rather than good news. Asian markets started slow and rallied after the release of positive Chinese data showing the tightening measures have not slowed the economy down to date.

Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 ET

Treasury Auction of 10-yr notes at 13:00 ET

Bullish sentiment increases to 44.1% from 40.9% in the latest US Investor's Intelligence poll. Bearish sentiment decreases to 22.6% from 24.9%. Those expecting a market correction decreases to 33.3% from 34.4%.

US derivatives watchdog gets more firepower

This is a big deal.  Recklessness is an interesting word they choose to use. 


This article appeared via FT here:  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e35eccb6-a8b4-11e0-b877-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1RS6D4mUw

"The main US derivatives regulator has approved rules boosting the agency’s legal firepower against market manipulation after winning only one case at trial in its 36-year history.

The rules, adopted over the objections of hedge funds and the futures industry, will allow the Commodity Futures Trading Commission lawyers to cite recklessness as a reason to sue traders for manipulation. Previous rules required proof that traders had distorted prices.

The Market is a Sea of Opportunity

Follow along as we guide you along the cycles and waves of the stock market.