Monday, October 31, 2011
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Setting the Scene for a Productive Day :: Tips :: The 99 Percent
Indirectly related to trading, but I thought this was a topic some traders might like to explore in more detail. How do you create the best possible workspace for your optimum performance. What does it look, feel, and sound like? What could you do differently to change your patterns and misbehaviors? Words for thought...
'via Blog this'
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Monday, October 24, 2011
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Song of the Day: DILLON FRANCIS - I.D.G.A.F.O.S.
Chicago... the home of house music... heard this jam in the gym today... and this picture is hilarious ... not sure what these chicks are thinking but I'm pretty sure they aren't sober
Volatility = Opportunity 10/19
Most Volatile Stocks (>1MM stock volume, >=5k option volume, >=.6 IV) - Google Doc::
The most volatile stocks for 10/19 sorted by the greatest option volume on top.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Morning Note
October 19, 2011
Equity futures are trading mixed to fair value. European markets are in positive territory, reacting to the volatility in the US in the last hour of trading: US markets first saw a knee-jerk rally on the Guardian report that an agreement on a €2T rescue fund had been reached, and then pulled back on the realization that the €2T represented the impact of leverage, and not an increase in the absolute size, and then subsequent headlines that the €2T figure was "totaly wrong". Underperformance in Nasdaq futures reflects Apple's (AAPL) earnings miss, while S&P and Dow futures are above fair value.
Bullish sentiment increases to 35.8% from 34.4% in the latest US Investor's Intelligence poll. Bearish sentiment decreases to 41.0% from 46.3%
Those expecting a market correction increases to 23.2% from 19.3%
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
DeMark Says S&P 500 May Peak Above 1,250 This Week, Decline 5.6%
DeMark Says S&P 500 May Peak Above 1,250 This Week, Decline 5.6%
S&P 500 may advance as high as 1,254 before falling at least 5.6%, technical analyst Tom DeMark wrote in an e-mail today.
This rally should squeeze short sellers and exhaust late buying: DeMark; The rally should be fast.
DeMark's prediction last month that the S&P's decline would stop at 1,076 proved prescient, it bottomed at 1,074.77
S&P would produce sell signal today by closing above its Oct. 12 close of 1,207.25, marking 9th consecutive day the benchmark exceeded its final price four days earlier: DeMark
Close above 2-mo. high of 1,224.58 reached on Oct. 14 would "perfect" the sell setup:
-DeMark
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!
No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
S&P 500 may advance as high as 1,254 before falling at least 5.6%, technical analyst Tom DeMark wrote in an e-mail today.
This rally should squeeze short sellers and exhaust late buying: DeMark; The rally should be fast.
DeMark's prediction last month that the S&P's decline would stop at 1,076 proved prescient, it bottomed at 1,074.77
S&P would produce sell signal today by closing above its Oct. 12 close of 1,207.25, marking 9th consecutive day the benchmark exceeded its final price four days earlier: DeMark
Close above 2-mo. high of 1,224.58 reached on Oct. 14 would "perfect" the sell setup:
-DeMark
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!
No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Morning Note Oct 14
October 14, 2011
Equity futures are trading above fair value ahead of today's Oct Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 09:55 ET and as G20 Finance ministers are meeting in Paris today to find a solution to the debt crisis. Greece remains the central focus but fears of a spread to other Eurozone countries and banks remains high.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Recognizing Bearish Divergence
Notice the higher highs is price but a lower high in momo during the second half of the day. Conservative traders would take profits into those new highs and aggressive traders could take shots on the short side.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!
No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Morning Note
October 13, 2011
Equity futures are trading lower as European indices trend down after having opened higher. Google (GOOG) is expected to report after the close. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reports Q3 EPS $1.02
Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks at 11:45 ET
Treasury Auction of 30-yr bonds at 13:00 ET.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Patrick Willis' 'Homegrown' Workout
You might be bigger than me, you might be faster than me but you won't out work me.
Morning Note Oct 12
October 12, 2011
US equity futures are above fair value, following Europe higher despite Slovakia's failed vote to approve changes to the EFSF rescue fund, though it is widely expected to be ratified later this week, and after Alcoa (AA) missed earnings expectations. Attention will likely shift to the release of the FOMC's September minutes at 14:00 ET and numerous Fed speakers on the economy scheduled for today.
Bullish sentiment unchanged at 34.4% in the latest US Investor's Intelligence poll. Bearish sentiment increases to 46.3% from 45.2%
Those expecting a market correction decreases to 19.3% from 20.4%
Options Flow Recap Oct 11
Macro / Thematic
EEM – 76,000 of the October 36 / 39 put spread was sold at $1.11. The put spread was sold to close and likely closes a position opened approximately one month ago for a $0.55 debit.
SPY – 30,000 of the January 110 puts were bought for $4.44. 40,000 of the January 105 puts were bought for $3.29. 20,000 of the January 85 puts were bought for $0.92. 50,000 of the January 100 puts were sold at $2.43 and 40,000 of the January 90 puts were sold at $1.28. The trade was done as a package.
VIX – 18,000 of the January 25 puts were bought for $1.075.
XLF – 17,000 of the January 12 puts were sold at $0.98.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Bearish options bets build in ETFs tied to Treasurys
--Bearish options bets build in ETFs tied to Treasurys
--Put-call ratio iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund highest in two years
--Traders hold most bullish options on record in ProShares UltraShort 20 + Year Treasury ETF By Chris Dieterich OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Bearish bets against U.S. Treasury-based ETFs are at their highest level in two years, a sign that investors are growing cautious about the run-up in Treasury prices and increasingly upbeat about U.S. stocks.
--Put-call ratio iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund highest in two years
--Traders hold most bullish options on record in ProShares UltraShort 20 + Year Treasury ETF By Chris Dieterich OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Bearish bets against U.S. Treasury-based ETFs are at their highest level in two years, a sign that investors are growing cautious about the run-up in Treasury prices and increasingly upbeat about U.S. stocks.
Morning Note Oct 11th
October 11, 2011
US equity futures are following European markets lower as ECB's Trichet reiterated a sense of urgency in regard to dealing with the Eurozone Sovereign debt crisis in order to avoid contagion. The Slovakian vote on approving changes to the EFSF rescue fund is expected at ~7:00 ET is looking less likely to be approved though there are reports that the parliament can put the ratification to repeated ballot once a political agreement with the opposition is in place. Earnings season unofficially kicks off with Alcoa (AA) after the close.
EU/IMF/ECB inspectors say Greece will miss 2011 target, says Greek 2011 fiscal target no longer within reach.
Sep NFIB Small Business Index 88.9 vs. 88.1 in August
Monday, October 10, 2011
Options Flow Recap Oct 10
Macro / Thematic
iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund EFA - 2200 of the November 52 calls were sold at $1.66.
iShares MSCI Japan Index EWJ - 30,000 of the December / March 10 call spreads were bought for $0.20. Likely a roll of a bullish position out to March.
SPDR Gold Trust GLD - 6000 of the November 163 / 171 1x2 call ratio spread was sold at $0.10. The investor bought one 162 call and sold two 171 calls.
Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X Shares TZA - 10,000 of the November 45 / 50 call spread was bought for $3.00. The calls spread appears to be bought to open. (I could see the argument that TZA is at support but risk 3 to make 2? There are better ways to play this)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish UUP - 46,300 of the December 22 calls were sold at $0.38. ($ bounce might be over... traders taking profits)
Friday, October 7, 2011
Portfolio Manager Versus Analyst
LOL! Zero Hedge posted this... hilarious.
"Our hedge fund readers will find 100% of this cartoon is correct 100% of the time."
Morning Note Oct 7th
October 7, 2011
US equity futures are trading lower ahead of September unemployment data due at 8:30 ET
Lipper reports equity fund outflows of ($5.9B) in w/e 5-Oct vs outflows of ($5.9B) in w/e 28-September. Ex-ETFs, outflows were ($638M) in w/e 5-Oct vs outflows of ($1.7B) in w/e 28-Sep.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Options Flow Recap Oct 6th
Macro / Thematic
EWT – 8000 of the December 8, 9, 10 puts were all bought to open. The purchases seem to reflect expectations for higher volatility in Taiwan's equity markets through mid-December.
FXI - 7600 of the October 29 puts were sold at $0.43.
XLF – 90,400 of the October 10 / 13 risk reversal was sold at $0.06 to buy 90,400 of the November 10 / 13 bullish risk reversal for $0.17. The trade is a roll of a bullish risk reversal from October to November.
XLP – 23,000 of the November 25 / 28 put spread was bought for $0.33. The put spread was bought to open.
Volatility = Opportunity 10/6
Most Volatile Stocks (>1MM stock volume, >=5k option volume, >=.6 IV) - Google Doc::
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
The most volatile stocks for 10/6 sorted by the greatest option volume on top.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Volatility = Opportunity 10/4
Most Volatile Stocks (>1MM stock volume, >=5k option volume, >=.6 IV) - Google Doc::
The most volatile stocks for 10/4 sorted by the greatest option volume on top.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Morning Note Oct 4th
October 4, 2011
US equity futures are lower as continuing concerns over contagion risk to the EU debt crisis, capital needs in the banking sector and slowing global growth concerns all weigh on investor sentiment. Attention will turn to Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony on the economy to Congress today at 10:00 ET.
Option Flow Recap Oct 3rd
Macro / Thematic
IWM – 43,000 x 49,000 of the October 63 / 69 ratio put spread was sold at $3.87 (as if 1 to 1). The trade appears to be a roll down from the October 69 puts to the October 63s.
IYR – 20,000 of the December 60 puts were bought for $10.10. The puts appear to be bought to open.
SPY – 13,000 of the November 100 / October 115 put spread was sold at $3.55. The trade appears to be roll from the October 115 puts down to the November 100 puts.
UNG – 28,000 of the January 10 calls were bought for $0.35 tied to $8.95 stock.
XOP – 10,000 of the December 49 / 43 put spread was sold at $3.65 to buy 20,000 x 30,000 of
the December 40 / 30 ratio put spread for $0.13 (as if 1 to 1) and sold 20,000 of the December 52 calls at $1.12. The ratio put spread collar was an opening transaction.
Monday, October 3, 2011
Daily High Option Volume Scan
Price below $50
Option volume above 100,000
*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!
No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Morning Note Oct 3rd
October 3, 2011
US equity futures are off the worst levels of the morning following Asia and Europe lower as continuing concerns over the banking sector and slowing global growth are once again highlighted after Greece admitted over the weekend it would miss it's Fiscal targets. With no resolution in sight to the EU debt crisis, anxiety continues to weigh on markets.
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