Thursday, July 28, 2011
Volatility = Opportunity
Most Volatile Stocks (>1MM stock volume, >=5k option volume, >=.6 IV) - Google Doc:
The most volatile stocks for today sorted by the greatest option volume on top.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Trade of the Day: ATPG Oil and Gas (ATPG) 3 way trade
The Trade
A trader sold 10,000 January 2013 $15 puts for $3.95 and bought the January 2012 $17.50/$30 call spread at $1.05. The trader received a credit of $2.90 or $2,900,000.
A trader sold 10,000 January 2013 $15 puts for $3.95 and bought the January 2012 $17.50/$30 call spread at $1.05. The trader received a credit of $2.90 or $2,900,000.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Volatility = Opportunity
Most Volatile Stocks (>1MM stock volume, >=5k option volume, >=.6 IV) - Google Doc: - Google Docs
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
The most volatile stocks for today sorted by the greatest option volume on top.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Morning Note
July 27, 2011
Equity are trading mixed relative to fair value as ongoing debt gridlock continues to weigh on the markets. Banks in Europe are trading lower after Goldman Sachs in a strategy note downgraded the sector. Amazon (AMZN) is up ~6% in Germany after reporting Q2 yesterday after the close.
S&P statement on the rating of the United States; On July 14th, S&P placed the credit rating of the U.S. on CreditWatch Negative. In announcing the CreditWatch, S&P highlighted several factors that it will consider in determining whether to revise its 'AAA' rating on the U.S., including the need for lawmakers to agree on a plan to deal with the federal deficit and develop a credible solution to the country's debt burden. Standard & Poor's has chosen not to comment on the many and varying proposals that have arisen in the current debate.
Any statement to the contrary is inaccurate.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Options Flow Recap July 26th
Macro / Thematic
GLD SPDR Gold Trust – 20k of the August 167 / 175 call spread was bought for $0.29. 20,000 of the August 168 / 176 call spreads were bought for $0.23.
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF – 30,000 of the July (29th) 131 puts were bought for $0.37.
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR – 54,000 of the September 79 / 83 call spread was sold at ~$1.60.
XME SPDR S&P Metals and Mining – 15,000 of the September 63 / 58 1x2 put ratio spread was bought for $0.13. The open interest in the September 58 puts (17% out of the money) are nearly 37,000, meaning the trade could be a roll up in strikes.
XRT SPDR S&P Retail – 40,000 of the December 44 puts were sold at $0.645 to buy 15,000 of the December 50 puts for $1.755.
Volatility = Opportunity
Most Volatile Stocks (>1MM stock volume, >=5k option volume, >=.6 IV) - Google Doc:
The most volatile stocks for today sorted by the greatest option volume on top.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Option 101 - Modeling Calendar Spreads part II
As traders, it is prudent to model potential positions as part of ones due diligence prior to entering a particular trade.
With the aid of option simulation software, modeling can allow one to analyze all the relevant risks (delta, gamma, theta, vega) and understand the maximum loss and gain for any position over time.
The example used for this post is slightly different than the previous post. It is the 11-strike out-of-the-money August/September calendar spread for BAC. Notice the differences in the risk profiles between the two as this example, which is considered out-of-the-money, carries more profit potential. This is because out-of-the-money options carry more risk due to the larger price swing needed to be in-the-money. As a result, they are priced at a discount to compensate for the additional risk.
In this calendar spread example, the maximum risk, $12 per spread position, is calculated as the net premium outlay for the position.
The maximum profit potential by August 20 is $30.27 per spread position (252.24%). It is calculated based on ideal assumptions for the underlying and various Greeks. Specifically, it assumes volatility levels for each contract will remain constant and that the position will remain slightly delta positive per spread. Hence, it assumes there will be little price fluctuation. Consequently, because reality generally deviates from theory, it is highly recommended that sensitivity analysis be performed on all assumptions in any model.
Fortunately, option modeling programs like Option Oracle, allow one to do just that. As a cautionary concluding note, remember markets are dynamic and as a result, assumptions and decisions based on them must be constantly updated to maintain one's edge.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
High Volume = Opportunity (>5k Options Volume, July 25th)
High Volume = Opportunity (>5k Options Volume, 25th)
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!
No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Morning Note
Today's Markets:
In Asia, Japan +0.5% to 10098. Hong Kong +1.3% to 22572. China +0.5% to 2703. India -1.9% to 18518.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +0.5% to $99.71. Gold flat at $1611.60.
In Asia, Japan +0.5% to 10098. Hong Kong +1.3% to 22572. China +0.5% to 2703. India -1.9% to 18518.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.1%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +0.5% to $99.71. Gold flat at $1611.60.
Monday, July 25, 2011
Options Flow Recap July 25th
Macro / Thematic
FXY CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust - traded over 6x its usual volume after hitting its all time high of 126.25 today. On the NSYE, someone traded 9K Sep 124 puts on the offer @ $1.10 in an opening transaction. The trade has a 10 IV with a 33 delta. If this was a buyer, it looks like they are looking for some downside in the currency after clipping $126. The trader is not the only one in the boat as the top 9/10 positions right now are in puts: Jan 110P (25K), Jan 100P (9.7K), Jan 90P (6.6K), Sep 117P (4.1K), Jan13 90P (4K), Jan 80P (3.2K), Jan 95P (3.2K).
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR – 15,000 of the August 80 / 77 put spread was bought for $1.22.
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR - 59,000 of the August 15 puts were bought for $0.325.
Volatility = Opportunity
Most Volatile Stocks (>1MM stock volume, >=5k option volume, >=.6 IV) - Google Doc:
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
The most volatile stocks for today sorted by the greatest option volume on top.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Options 101 - Modeling Calendar Spreads
As traders, it is prudent to model potential positions as part of ones due diligence prior to entering a particular trade.
With the aid of option simulation software, modeling can allow one to analyze all the relevant risks (delta, gamma, theta, vega) and understand the maximum loss and gain for any position over time.
The example used for this post is the 10-strike at-the-money August/September calendar spread for BAC.
Courtesy of Option Oracle, above is the theoretical payoff diagram for the position based on the price of BAC on August 20, the expiration day for front month of the spread. Furthermore, shown below, is the theoretical payoff diagram for the position based on varying volatility levels.
In this calendar spread example, the maximum risk, $19, is calculated as the net premium outlay for the position.
The maximum profit potential by August 20 is $19.70 per contract (103.66%). It is calculated based on ideal assumptions for the underlying and various Greeks. Specifically, it assumes volatility levels for each contract will remain constant at approximately 35% and that the position will remain delta neutral. Hence, it assumes there will be little price fluctuation. Consequently, because reality generally deviates from theory, it is highly recommended that sensitivity analysis be performed on all assumptions in any model.
Fortunately, option modeling programs like Option Oracle, allow one to do just that. As a cautionary concluding note, remember markets are dynamic and as a result, assumptions and decisions based on them must be constantly updated to maintain one's edge.
Trade of the Day: Energy (XLE) August $80/$77 put spread
The Trade
A trader bought the August $80/$77 15,000x put spread for $1.22, or $1,830,000.
A trader bought the August $80/$77 15,000x put spread for $1.22, or $1,830,000.
Morning Note
July 25, 2011
Equity futures are trading below fair value as the August 2nd deadline looms with no sign of an agreement in sight to raise the US debt ceiling. Moody's has cut Greece's rating to one notch above default, saying the new bailout set a negative precedent for creditors of other debt-burdened countries.
Greece local- and foreign-currency bond ratings downgraded to CA from CAA1; outlook developing at Moody's. Cites EU announced support program and debt exchange proposals implying that private creditors will incur substantial economic losses on their holdings of government debt. Says current uncertainty about the exact market value of the securities creditors will receive in the exchange.
High Volume = Opportunity (> 5k Options Volume, July 22nd
High Volume = Opportunity (> 5k Options Volume, July 22nd
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!
No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Friday, July 22, 2011
Trade of the Day: Brocade (BRCD) Sep $6 Straddle
The Trade
A trader sold the September $6 straddle, 3,500x at $0.82, or a $287,000 credit.
Risk/Reward
The trader is making a very risky bet on Brocade. Brocade reports earnings on August 17th. It's interesting to note that Brocade closed at $5.99, almost exactly at the strike prices of the options used. The trader's risk is unlimited, and the max profit potential is the credit. At expiration, the spread profits if the underlying is between $5.18 and $6.82.
The white lines shown in the daily chart are the break even prices at expiration. You can see that the upper break even price will be a strong resistance level, and the lower break even hasn't been touched in 2011. Brocade traded 25,756 option contracts compared to average daily volume of 15,234. The 52-week range is a low of $4.64 and a high of $7.30.
Alternative trade
To define the risk, an alternative trade could have set up the iron fly. In addition to selling the straddle, the trader could have bought the September $7 call and $5 put for a total of $0.18. It seems like a cheap way to define your risk, especially since BRCD reports earnings on August 17th.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!
No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
A trader sold the September $6 straddle, 3,500x at $0.82, or a $287,000 credit.
Risk/Reward
The trader is making a very risky bet on Brocade. Brocade reports earnings on August 17th. It's interesting to note that Brocade closed at $5.99, almost exactly at the strike prices of the options used. The trader's risk is unlimited, and the max profit potential is the credit. At expiration, the spread profits if the underlying is between $5.18 and $6.82.
The white lines shown in the daily chart are the break even prices at expiration. You can see that the upper break even price will be a strong resistance level, and the lower break even hasn't been touched in 2011. Brocade traded 25,756 option contracts compared to average daily volume of 15,234. The 52-week range is a low of $4.64 and a high of $7.30.
Alternative trade
To define the risk, an alternative trade could have set up the iron fly. In addition to selling the straddle, the trader could have bought the September $7 call and $5 put for a total of $0.18. It seems like a cheap way to define your risk, especially since BRCD reports earnings on August 17th.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!
No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Song of the day: M83 - Midnight City
New Album drops in October. Electronic fans everywhere have been waiting for this highly anticipated double CD. Enjoy.
Morning Note
*I'll update this post as I get more info up to 10 minutes before the open.
July 22, 2011
Equity futures are trading above fair value, following Europe higher after Eurozone leaders agreed a further €159B aid package to Greece to which private lenders will contribute. Three of the four options offered to lenders to swap or relend existing debts would extend Greece's repayment terms by 30 years, while the fourth would do so by 15 years. All options offer a much lower interest rate thanGreece's current 15%-25% cost of borrowing.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Volatility = Opportunity
Most Volatile Stocks (>1MM stock volume, >=5k option volume, >=.6 IV) - Google Doc:
The most volatile stocks for today sorted by the greatest option volume on top.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Options Flow Recap July 21st
Macro / Thematic
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF: buyer 10,000 Aug 130 puts for 1.10
XLP Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR : buyer 6900 Aug 33 calls for 05
EWZ iShares MSCI Brazil Index: buyer 2,560 Sep 76 calls for 76
EWJ iShares MSCI Japan Index - 10k Sept 11 calls bot
High Volume = Opportunity (>5k options Volume, July 21st)
High Volume = Opportunity (>5k options Volume, July 21st)
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!
No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Delta-Neutral Option Trading Strategies
I personally don't agree with everything this guys says but figured it would helpful to some of you...
High Volume = Opportunity (>5k options Volume, July 20th)
High Volume = Opportunity (>5k options Volume, July 20th)
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!
No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Morning Note
*As I add to my morning note I'll try to update this post up until about 10 mins before the market so refresh or check back.
July 21, 2011
Equity futures are now near fair value having initially followed European indices and the euro lower, after Eurogroup's Juncker said that selective default for Greece was a possibilty and after it was reported the draft EU statement for Greece proposed lowering the EFSF lending rate for Greece to 3.5% and public sector support for Greece extended for a minimum of 15 years. It was also reported that Germany and France have ruled out a bank tax as part of a deal on Greece.
HSBC July Flash China PMI 48.9 vs 50.1 sequentially.
Japan recorded an unexpected trade surplus in June, the first in three months.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Options Flow Recap July 20th
Macro / Thematic
GLD SPDR Gold Trust - 20,000 of the August 162 / 171 call spread bought for $0.64. The trade was tied to 300,000 shares at $154.82 and appears to be to open.
VIX - 50,000 of the September 25 / 32.5 1x2 call ratio spread was bought for $0.075. The call spread traded 50,000 x 100,000.
Volatility = Opportunity
Most Volatile Stocks (>1MM stock volume, >=5k option volume, >=.6 IV) - Google Doc:
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
The most volatile stocks for today sorted by the greatest option volume on top.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Morning Note
July 20, 2011
Equity futures are trading above fair value lifted by strong results from Apple (AAPL) and after President Obama hailed progress on debt talks. President Barack Obama cited "some progress" in debt talks hailing a plan by a group of bipartisan senators to cut the budget deficit and raise the debt limit.
Yesterday, after the European close, the IMF called on Europe for immediate measures to strengthen the financial system through adequate capitalization and a strong follow up to the stress-test. The IMF emphasized the need to stem contagion through a cohesive and cooperative approach, noting that delays in resolving the crisis could be costly for the euro area and the global economy.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Volatility = Opportunity
Most Volatile Stocks (>1MM stock volume, >=5k option volume, >=.6 IV) - Google Doc:
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
The most volatile stocks for today sorted by the greatest option volume on top.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Options Flow Recap July 19th
Macro / Thematic
VIX - 19,000 of the September 16 puts were bought for $0.29.
XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR - 32,000 of the September 83 calls were sold at $0.94. The trade appears to be to open and possibly tied to 300K shares at $77.29.
Volume = Opportunity
Highest Options Volume Names
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!
No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Morning Note
July 19, 2011
Equity futures are trading above fair value as earnings season kicks into a higher gear, with a number of major companies due to report today.
Technology stocks are among today's best performers in Europe as IBM trades +1.5% in Germany after its Q2 report yesterday after the close.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Volatility = Opportunity
Most Volatile Stocks (>1MM stock volume, >=5k option volume, >=.6 IV) - Google Doc:
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
The most volatile stocks for today sorted by the greatest option volume on top.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Options Flow Recap July 18th
Macro / Thematic
GLD SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) – 20,000 of the August 145 / 138 put spread was bought for $0.27. The spread was bought to open.
Options 101: Skew
Skew, also referred to as the "smile", is the difference in implied volatility levels of single cycle options. There are two main groups of skew, horizontal and vertical. Horizontal skew shows how implied volatility changes across time and vertical skew depicts the change in implied volatility across strikes.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Although there are many beliefs as to why it exists, in general, skew is a product of supply and demand. Knowledge of skew shapes can help traders identify opportunity and steer clear of danger when spreading in various markets.
Using option analysis software, one can plot implied volatility as a function of both strike price and time to maturity to create an implied volatility surface. This allows traders to quickly determine the shape of the skew and identify any areas where the slope seems irregular.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
BofA Needs to Build $50 Billion Cushion
This article originally appeared here.
"Bank of America Corp. (BAC) may have to build its capital cushion by $50 billion and renege again on Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan’s pledge to raise the firm’s dividend as mortgage losses drain funds.
Morning Note
July 18, 2011
Equity futures and European indices are trading lower as sovereign debt concerns boost the price of gold to above $1,600/ounce and as corporate earnings kick into a higher gear this week.
Aug WTI crude ($0.41) to $96.83
Natural gas ($0.002) to $4.544
Gold +$7.50 to $1600.69
10-year yield 2.8894%
30-year yield 4.2401%
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Skills For Gaining Control
This is a follow up post to "Getting to Know Your Intersections"
Skills for Gaining Control
When you're trading with a green light consistantly keep doing what you're doing or think about sizing up or trading more markets. But I'm not writing about that now. Today I want to focus on what to do when you're trading with a yellow light or even worse a red light. When you've lost control or are about to lose control its imparitive to your wealth and mental capital you get back to your green light. The following ideas I've taken from athletes like Michael Jordan, coaches like Phil Jackson, various articles I've read over the years on performing at a high level, and various traders I respect.
Skills for Gaining Control
When you're trading with a green light consistantly keep doing what you're doing or think about sizing up or trading more markets. But I'm not writing about that now. Today I want to focus on what to do when you're trading with a yellow light or even worse a red light. When you've lost control or are about to lose control its imparitive to your wealth and mental capital you get back to your green light. The following ideas I've taken from athletes like Michael Jordan, coaches like Phil Jackson, various articles I've read over the years on performing at a high level, and various traders I respect.
Volatility = Opportunity
Most Volatile Stocks (>1MM stock volume, >=5k option volume, >=.6 IV) - Google Doc:
The most volatile stocks for today sorted by the greatest option volume on top
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow!No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Weekend Watch: Tax Loophole for Futures Traders
Andrew Ross Sorkin on the very advantageous tax rate of 23% futures traders pay on gains. Change could be on the table during debt ceiling negotiations in Washington.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/ *Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow! No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/ *Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, LiveVolPro, CBOE, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow! No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.
Weekend Watch: Fighting for Folk
Not trading related, but that's what the weekend is for! I thought this was pretty interesting. Its also easy to forget that the challenges we face in the US around race, culture, and xenophobia happen everywhere in the world.
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
http://seaofopportunity.blogspot.com/
Song of the Day: Big Sean - Dance (Ass)
Do I hear some MC Hammer in there!?! LOL You've official heard the booty club song of the summer!
Song of the Day: Sorry 4 The Wait - Lil Wayne
Lil Weezy is back! Adele sampled track stood out to me. You can get the mix-tape here or stream from rolling stones.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Morning Note
July 15, 2011
Equity futures are modestly above fair value as the news that S&P had put US government debt on credit watch negative, and more tightening measures on the property market coming out of China, hurt sentiment. Asia came off its lows during the trading day, and US futures have risen off earlier lows.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Options Flow Recap July 14th
Macro / Thematic
GLD SPDR Gold Trust – 15,000 of the October 145 puts were bought over the day for $2.00. The puts were bought to open.
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF - buyer 10,000 July 132/134 call spread for 95, seller 15,000 July 132 puts at 71, seller 7,500 July 132 puts at 60
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund : buyer 3,500 Aug 30/July 31 call spreads for 1.15
EWZ iShares MSCI Brazil Index - buyer 12,300 Aug 78 calls for 08
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