Friday, October 7, 2011

Morning Note Oct 7th

October 7, 2011

US equity futures are trading lower ahead of September unemployment data due at 8:30 ET

Lipper reports equity fund outflows of ($5.9B) in w/e 5-Oct vs outflows of ($5.9B) in w/e 28-September. Ex-ETFs, outflows were ($638M) in w/e 5-Oct vs outflows of ($1.7B) in w/e 28-Sep.

Libor fixings 

- Overnight Libor: Dollar: 0.139% vs prior 0.143% ; Sterling: 0.585% vs prior 0.585%; Euro: 0.849% vs prior 0.856%
- 1-month Libor: Dollar: 0.243% vs prior 0.242% ; Sterling: 0.692% vs prior 0.694%; Euro: 1.301% vs prior 1.296%
- 3-month Libor: Dollar: 0.391% vs prior 0.388% ; Sterling: 0.959% vs prior 0.960%; Euro: 1.504% vs prior 1.496%

Fed reports balance sheet assets of $2.863T on Wednesday, +$8.6B w/w and +$551.6B y/y 
Holdings of US Treasury securities were $1.672T on 5-Oct, +$7.1B w/w and +$852.7B y/y
Holdings of mortgage-backed securities were $870.9B on 5-Oct, unchanged w/w and ($207.7B) y/y.
Holdings of federal agency debt securities were $108.3B on 5-Oct, unchanged w/w and ($45.8B) y/y.

WTI ($0.37) to $82.22

Nat'l gas ($0.047) to $3.551

Spot Gold +$4.00 at $1653.60

Asian Markets

Asian markets traded higher, buoyed by optimism surrounding the European debt crisis as the ECB announced new liquidity and bank funding measures, the BoE announced a additional £75M round of quantitative easing, and the US saw better-than-expected jobs numbers. As talks of a coordinated European bank recapitalization gained momentum, bank shares in Asia saw strong gains as worries of a second global banking meltdown subsided. Once again, higher commodity prices drove growth-sensitive resource stocks up across the region. Exporters rose as optimism that a double-dip recession may be avoided boosted shares. BOJ left the unsecured overnight call loan rate unchanged in a 0.0-0.1% range. The yen is trading at 76.65 to the US dollar.

European Markets

European equity markets trade mixed to lower with major indices having failed to hold onto modest gains after a cautious open. Optimism about a possible coordinated recapitalization of the regions banks and BOE and ECB actions yesterday was tempered by Moody's downgrades of UK and Portuguese banks and ahead of the US non-farm payroll report due at 8:30ET. Economic and corporate news flow was light, though generally disappointing. German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy meet on 9-Oct to discuss the EU summit starting on 17-Oct, where it's reported proposals on the bank recapitalisation plan will be presented. UK Sep PPI output +6.3% y/y vs consensus +6.2%, prior revised +6.0% from +6.1%, core output +3.8% y/y vs consensus +3.7%, prior +3.6%, input +17.5% y/y vs consensus +16.9%, prior +16.2%. Germany August Industrial Production (1.0%) m/m vs consensus (1.9%) and prior revised to +3.9% from +4.0%. The pound and the euro are trading at $1.55.13 and $1.3428 respectively.

Today’s Economic Releases (Eastern Time)

04:30 UK PPI y/y (Sep); actual +6.3%; consensus +6.2%
06:00 Germany Industrial Production m/m (Aug); actual (1.0%); consensus (1.9%)
08:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep); consensus +58K
08:30 US Unemployment Rate (Sep); consensus 9.1%
08:30 US Hourly Earnings (Sep); consensus +0.2%
08:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Sep); consensus 34.2
10:00 US Wholesale Inventories (Aug); consensus +0.5%
15:00 US Consumer Credit (Aug); consensus +$7.55B

Friday's Key Events (Eastern Time)

09:30 Fed's Fisher speaks
10:45 Fed's Lockhart speaks on US economy and financial capability
—:— China: Markets Closed for National Day
—:— Global Hunter Securities with Targacept

Company Specific News

ANGO (AngioDynamics reports Q1 EPS $0.08 ex-items v. First Call $0.08; Reiterates f12 guidance: Non-GAAP EPS $0.41-$0.49 v. First Call $0.43)
ILMN (Illumina guides Q3 revenue $235.M vs Reuters $278.0M)

Corporate Actions
SWHC (Smith & Wesson announces plan to divest perimeter security business)

ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings files for up to $50M equity offering for holders through JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Merrill Lynch, Itau BBA and Credit Suisse)
MWE (MarkWest Energy announces 5.0M secondary through Morgan Stanley, BofA Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, RBC Capital Markets and Wells Fargo)
RGP (Regency Energy Partners LP announces offering of 10M common units. Barclays Capital, BofA Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS Investment Bank and Wells Fargo Securities are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering)

Other News
Eurozone sovereign debt crisis 

- Barroso enters fray over bank support: The FT said that in the clearest sign yet that Eurozone leaders could come up with a plan to shore up the battered financial sector as soon as a summit later this month, European Commission President Barroso said that he will soon present his own plan for Europe-wide bank recapitalizations. The article noted that Barroso has not said whether he is in favor of recapitalizations done at the national level or through the EFSF. It pointed out that while senior EC officials are known to support using national funds before the EFSF is employed (as are countries such as Germany and Finland), France has insisted that any coordinated effort should be run through the bailout fund.
- Sarkozy, Merkel to discuss bank capital in Berlin: Reuters noted that French President Sarkozy told reporters on Friday that he and German Chancellor Merkel may discuss European bank recapitalizations when they meet on Sunday. He said that "I will have the pleasure of being in Berlin on Sunday. That will be the more appropriate place to talk about recapitalizing banks." The article pointed out that the EU's executive arm said on Thursday that it would present a plan for member states to coordinate a recapitalization of their banks.
GermanyFrance split on bank aid before summit: Reuters, citing diplomats, reported that Germany and France are split ahead of crucial summit talks on Sunday over how to strengthen the European banking sector. The article noted that a German source said France wanted to tap the EFSF to recapitalize its own banks, while Germany has insisted that the fund should only be used as a last resort when no national funds are available. Reuters pointed out that the big issue for France, whose banks have the largest exposure to the periphery, is maintaining its triple-A rating.
GermanyFrance split on EFSF bond purchases: Bloomberg noted that the Handelsblatt reported that Germany and France are at odds over whether the EFSF should have limits on government bond purchases. The paper cited an unidentified high-ranking European Union diplomat. According to the article, France does not want any restrictions on how much of its capital the EFSF can use for bond purchases. However, Germanywants to limit the amount the EFSF can spend for bonds from each country and is also considering whether there should be a time limit for debt purchases.
- Moody's downgrades nine Portuguese banks: The FT noted that Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of nine Portuguese banks, citing increased risk from their holdings of Portuguese government debt, the impact of austerity measures and liquidity strains. The paper added that the move affects all of Portugal's main banks and follows a downgrade by Moody's of the country's sovereign credit rating to junk status in July.
- ECB funding to Italian banks rose in September: Reuters reported that Italian banks sharply increased their reliance on ECB funding in September. Citing data posted on the Bank of Italy's website, the article noted that funding from the central bank rose to €104.7B at the end of September from €85B the month before and just €41.3B at the end of June. Reuters pointed out that an added problem for Italian banks is that they are big holders of domestic government bonds.
- ECB taps swap lines again for $500M at higher rate: Dow Jones noted that the ECB accessed the Fed's foreign exchange swap facility for $500M this week at a modestly higher interest rate. The article pointed out that it was the third consecutive week in which the ECB needed to tap the swap line. It added that the cost of doing so is getting more expensive, as terms for a seven day loan pushed up to 1.09% from 1.07% in the period ended 28-Sep. The ECB borrowed $500M during that period, following a $575M loan in the week-ended 21-Sep.
Greece bailout talks not ended yet: Reuters noted that while Greece said on Thursday that it concluded talks with the IMF on its next aid trance, inspectors from the troika have said that negotiations on the bailout are continuing and that there was no final conclusion with any party. The article said that a senior troika official told Reuters on Wednesday that the Greek aid trance was likely to be approved, but that Athens must first do more to convince lenders it can implement reforms.
IMF advisor warns of financial meltdown: Zero Hedge noted that in an interview, IMF advisor Robert Shapiro told the BBC that if Eurozone leaders do not address the sovereign debt crisis in a credible manner, he believes that within two to three weeks, there could be a meltdown in sovereign debt that will produce a meltdown across the European banking system. He added that this would be a crisis more serious than the one in 2008.

Newspaper Articles / Headlines

Le Figaro
EasyJet opens two regional bases in France; Nice and Toulouse. Le Figaro reports that less than a week after Air France opened it new low cost base in Marseille, Eazy Jet fights back by creating two new bases in Nice and Toulouse. Both locations will open in April 2012.

Les Echos
Hermes opens its first new store in India today. Les Echos reports that the store will open today in Bomday and represents the company's first attempt to enter the Indian market. The newspaper notes that other luxury brands are present in India, but mostly in Hotel malls.

New York Post
- Ex-Warner music exec James Caparro says he is bidding for EMI with Alliance Warburg Capital Management. The Post refers to a press release released yeserday by Caparro, and notes that industry insiders question the validity of the bid since it is unusual to release a statement when taking part in the auction process typically requires signing a non-disclosure agreement.

- Societe Generale CEO reiterates the bank doesn't need capital and that deleveraging will be enough to calm markets

Wall Street Journal
Bandanna cancels sale process after bids fall short. Citing a person familiar with the situation WSJ reports Bandanna Energy Ltd has failed to take advantage on the consolidation wave taking place in Australia's coal sector, closing its books to potential suitors after a sales process didn't generate adequate bids.
WSJ discusses ongoing foreclosure settlement talks. Citing a person familiar with the situation, the Journal reports that California AG Kamala Harris, who withrew from the negotiations last week, remains open to a deal if it involves "a stronger proposal" from lenders. Citing a person familiar with the banks' thinking, the Journal reports that Harris' decision has added to a sense of urgency in the negotiations, and the banks feel that the lack of total participation by states AGs wouldn't be enough to make them walk away from the negotiations if they feel there could be a deal struck that is fair. The Journal notes that Massachusetts AG Martha Coakley said Tuesday that her office is proceeding with lawsuits related to the forclosures, and citing people familiar with the matter, the Journal reports that her office has been investigating robo-signing and conduct related to mortgage securitization


Bank of America Merrill Lynch: upgraded IVX; downgraded LM
Barclays: upgraded ZUMZ
Benchmark: downgraded HRS
Canaccord Genuity: downgraded GLGL
Citi: upgraded UGI, NFG, OKE
Credit Suisse: upgraded WYNN
Deutsche Bank: upgraded AVB, BRE; downgraded ITC, ILMN
Moody's: Moody's takes rating actions on Portuguese banks; outlook negative
Oppenheimer: upgraded AMD
Susquehanna: upgraded CAH, PSS
UBS: downgraded ILMN
Wells Fargo: upgraded CHK

Economic / Macro (special report)

BMO hosted a luncheon with Global Strategist Don Coxe this past Tuesday, where he discussed his outlook for global equity markets, gold, and the sovereign credit crisis in Europe. Highlights below – note these are just my notes and could contain some errors. Latest Basic Points attached.

The New Recession:

-          If you make the analogy that what the world is the Roman Empire, the US is Rome. Europe, Asia, and other parts of the world will see a slowdown before the US ‘falls’.

-          If you remove exports from the GDP calculation, the US did not post any growth. The stronger dollar will hurt exports so it’s likely that we are already in recession.

-          We are in a mini-stagflation type of environment now as so many goods are pricing in higher commodity costs.


-          Gold will continue to be correlated to fear. Everyone is trying to push their currency down as much as possible.

-          The GLD has not had big draw downs which suggestions the late-comers were the ones to get out on the last down move.

-          Since Nixon closed the gold window, gold has outperformed the SPX even with dividends being reinvested.

-          European nations such as Italy should consider issuing 20-30 year gold-backed convertible bonds. This would go a long way to solving some of  credit issues countries are facing.

-          Gold-backed bonds would be extremely positive for gold miners as they can sell all they produce at a set price.

US & European Debt:

-          Duration of national debts is the shortest it has ever been with the US avg. at 4 years. Countries must find a way to extend the duration.

-          The problem with the EUR is that it is not backed by one government, one tax system, one army, or one navy.

-          The SNB, in its effort to stabilize the EUR relative to the CHF, has expanded its monetary bas to 1.15x the size of the Swiss GDP.

-          The US$ is in a ‘runaway bull market’ b/c it is the currency of debt, not growth. Debt will be paid in US$ so everyone must buy US$ to pay their debts.

-          We don’t see how the crisis in Europe gets solved. Creating was the EU was a total mistake. Each nation will eventually have to migrate out of the EUR into other currencies and eventually gold. Gold is the only Fx that is not being devalued.


-          Watch China very carefully. They have the ability to flip out of the one-child policy which would open a new chapter of growth for their economy. Perhaps this is why they are building empty cities and setting aside thousands of acreage for corn planting.


-          High-dividend paying stocks are the ones to own. Would buy Canadian banks as they are more-so div stocks than financials.

-          Continue to favor agriculture as people will always need to eat and this is a secular growth story. Names like CNHDE, DD, and POT offer exceptional long-term value.

-          Don expects a lot of M&A to take place as large companies look to buy long-term un-hedged reserves in the metals, energy, and fertilizer sectors. Political security is crucial for the buyers to consider.

The Recovery:

-          We will know that the bear market is over when the US$ stops rallying.

-          Banks are forecasters for the economy. You cannot buy this market until the banks outperform on a relative strength basis. Bank balance sheets are still very suspect.

The Next Major Crisis:

-          Pension funds will be killed by the Twist. They need 7-8% returns and the SPX is flat over the last 10 years. Actuaries will not allow the corporations to use such a high rate in the model as you can no longer achieve returns like these anywhere.


Options Intelligence Report (Max Breier) see attached report for charts, tables and further details.

“My Prediction… Pain” -Mr. T,  Rocky III

The market swings have inflicted pain on both equity and vol traders alike. Just as the VIX seemed poised to make a convincing push through 45 it hastened a 3 day retreat to 36.27. Long volatility (specifically via downside puts) likely became as crowded a trade as shorting the market. As we wrote in Monday’s piece, crowds should be avoided. The contrarian investor wins again  

That said, the game is far from over. If Europe is the epicenter of global risk, then the VStoxx (Eurostoxx VIX), down only about half as much as the VIX (in percent terms), is far from flashing the all clear sign. USmarkets may be projecting more confidence in the likelihood of a Eurozone bank recapitalization than the motherland itself. This is a scary development. As today’s WSJ aptly points out, France is stretched and already dealing with the bailout of Dexia. Any significant capital contribution jeopardizes the country’s AAA rating, and in turn that of the EFSF- a potential show stopper in the effort to end the sovereign debt crisis. We are paying very close attention to French sovereign CDS levels which we believe may the best leading indicator for US equities.

Off that theme, look at EFA where you can sell the Nov 53 calls to buy the 48-42 put spread for  $.55- Risk a $.55 loss or getting short EFA above 53 (@ $52.45 cost basis) and max reward of $5.45 (9.9x initial premium)

Concentrating on Financials

Financial earnings are heavily concentrated on the week of 10/17-10/22. Roughly 46.5% of the XLF is scheduled or expected to report earnings that week including  JPM, C, WFC, BAC and GS. While Q3 might not have been so terrible, the risk may be a chorus of cautious outlook as European exposure, tepid loan demand and a flattening yield curve all present challenges to the sector.  

In XLF, consider selling the Oct weekly (10/14 expiry) 12 puts to buy the Oct (10/22 expiry) 12 puts for $.18.

We would also re-examine downside strategies in MS. A few day’s ago, an article hit the tape pinning MS’s sovereign debt exposure to the recent departure of some prime brokerage clients. CDS levels went through the roof and the stock touched an intra day low of 11.58. With the stock’s now back up above $15, we like positioning for another short-term leg down while taking advantage of insanely high skew via buying the Oct 15-12 1x2 put spread for $.30. There is a 37 vol difference between the 15 and 12 strike puts.

Risk $.30 loss or getting long MS below $12 (@ $9.30 cost basis) and max reward $2.70 (9x initial premium). Earnings expected on 10/20.

Prepare for the Carnage But Don’t Count on It

This is our mantra going forward. We recognize the plethora of risks that threaten global capital markets but maintain a healthy respect for the determination of central banks in combating the sovereign debt crisis and jumpstarting economic growth. Today’s move by the ECB to reintroduce 1-year loans to banks and resume covered bond purchases is a case in point. Going into today’s meeting only a small minority of investors expected this to happen.

As we look to take advantage of this theme via options it helps to start with some observations about the current complexion of volatility.

1)      Short-term volatility has declined drastically over the past few sessions while long-dated implied vols remain ‘sticky’.  Over the past 3 sessions, 1 month SPY vol has dropped from 41.75 down to 32.5 (-22%) while 1 year vol declined a far more moderate 7% (from 32.25 to 30). This relatively greater move at the front end of the curve has resulted in a dramatic flattening of the term structure.

2)      Upside skew has flattened. When we look at the vol being priced into out of the money calls we see that while vol has come in across the board, it has come in relatively less for out of the money (i.e. 115-120% moneyness) calls than near the money calls (100-105% moneyness) calls. We see this as a reflection of the market lending renewed credibility to the chance of a large (15-20%) upside move in the market over the next 2-3 months.

Taking advantage of Vol conditions to Hedge Upside Risk

Investors who are short the market may want to consider hedging their upside risk via Nov or Dec expiring call-spread collars- a fancy term for selling downside puts to fund the purchase of an upside call. We think this strategy works well given the current volatility environment insofar as 1) It creates a net short vol position at the point of the vol term structure that hasn’t come in quite as much as very short dated vol. If the strategy works (i.e. the market goes higher) the trade should not only provide delta protection, but also benefit from a decline in vol. It takes advantage of both relatively steep downside skew (via selling a put) and flat upside skew (via buying a call spread). Depending on the moneyness of the puts sold, one can acheieve very compelling break evens on this type of trade.

Example: Against a short SPY position, sell the Dec 99 put to buy the 120-134 call spread for $1.95 (1.67% of spot)

This trade allows for an additional 13.34% profit on the downside while protecting from a move higher between +4.69% and +15.03%  through Dec expiration.

SPX option observations

In the SPX yesterday.... interesting that vol is rallying on today’s rally indicative that nervousness perpetuates.

Back months are trending higher today as we are seeing calendars bid (vol is up across the curve.)

Skew is still coming off but with vol upticking (near term) the pressure on skew doesn’t look as offered (8 to 30 delta puts are soft.)

Risk reversals are staying bid to call. The Oct 1200 call is a sticky strike as we are seeing good demand on upside 1200 calls.

All week one to four delta puts are in high demand.

Decent demand in SPX weeklies expiring today at the money options as customers are buying gamma into the unemployment number.

SocGen CEO: Recapitalizing the banks will not solve the European debt crisis, deleveraging would be enough to calm markets- Does not expect the Dexia situation to affect the overall banking system. - Greece needs to be dealt with as quickly as possible.


Short Interest in S&P 500 up 22% Since 3Q Start: Data Explorers 7:40
   Short interest in the S&P 500 stands at 3.13% of the total market capitalization, up 22% since start of 3Q, according to Data Explorers
� Semiconductors most shorted, 6.1% of shares out on loan
� Commercial & Professional Services 5.8%, Food & Staples Retailing 5.2% which is skewed by 25% short interest in Supervalu
� Transportation sector saw largest short interest increase, to 1.6% from 0.9%, although
� Of all 24 GICS level 2 sectors, short interest decreased in only one, Household & Personal Products down 5% to 1.45% of total capitalization

? U.S.A.�
1. A projected gain in U.S. payrolls in September was probably too small to bring down the unemployment rate.
2. BAC & C warrant investors are among those whose suffered losses of more than 50% since the government auctioned the securities to help recover bailout funds.
3. Switzerland will bid to use existing treaties to resolve a dispute over tax evasion by Americans with Swiss bank accounts and avert the risk of criminal prosecutions.
4. Global investors like Mitt Romney better than any other U.S. presidential candidate. Romney says he will offer a more assertive foreign policy than President Obama, promising increased military spending, a strong deterrent against Iran and an investment in missile defense systems.
5. A U.S. Justice Department crackdown aimed at the landlords of California �s medical-marijuana dispensaries threatens an industry that, by state estimates, generates as much as $1.3B in annual sales.
6. It�s better for dwarfs to be flung around a barroom for cash than to stand in the unemployment line, according to one Florida state lawmaker. Representative Ritch Workman, a Melbourne Republican
1. Dexia inched toward a breakup as France, Belgium and Luxembourg sought to protect their local units from the sovereign debt crisis threatening the heart of Europe�s financial system.
2. There will be meltdown across European banking system within perhaps 2-3 weeks if euro zone leaders don�t address crisis in a �credible way�, IMF advisor Robert Shapiro.
3. B.O.E. Governor King has lost faith in European governments� ability to resolve the region�s debt crisis. The central bank yesterday announced its biggest stimulus since the depths of the recession, citing �vulnerabilities� related to the euro-area turmoil.
4. Angela Merkel  and Nicolas Sarkozy  are running out of road. Whether to allow Greece to default and how to manage the fallout, questions they have tried to avoid for more than a year, may finally require answers as European officials turn to fortifying banks and consider ways of easing Greece�s debt load .
5. The ECB�s move to keep euro-area banks afloat is buying governments more time to recapitalize them as Greece edges closer to default.
6. Moody�s Investors Service cut the senior debt and deposit ratings of 12 British lenders.
7. The U.K. government  will spend an extra $460MM to subsidize child care for part-time workers in an effort to increase incentives for people to find jobs.
? GERMANY� German Industrial Production Fell Less Than Forecast in August
? PORTUGAL� Moody�s Takes Rate Action on Portuguese Banks; Outlook Negative
? CANADA� Canada�s economy added the most jobs in eight months in September, bringing the country�s jobless rate to its lowest since 2008.
? CHINA-- China mainland markets closed for holiday
1. Gasoline is tumbling to an eight- month low as reduced U.S. growth causes pump prices to follow crude oil�s decline. I PAID $3.11 IN NJ YESTERDAY !!
2. China's cotton import down 13.8 percent in Aug.
3. U.S. sugar stockpiles  are shrinking to the lowest in 37 years.
4. Copper rose for a third day
5. Corn declined
6. Coffee Falls
7. Sugar Rises

6 October 2011 by Charles Rotblut 0 Comments
By Charles Rotblut, CFA, AAII
Bullish sentiment rebounded to a five-week high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism that stock prices will rise over the next six months rose 2.7 percentage points to 35.2%. Even with the improvement, bullish sentiment remained below its historical average of 39% for the 11th consecutive week.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially flat, fell 1.6 percentage points to 19.0%. This is the lowest level of neutral sentiment since November 11, 2010.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 1.1 percentage points to 45.7%. This was the eighth time in the past 10 weeks that bearish sentiment has been above 40%. It is also the 30th time out of the last 33 weeks that bearish sentiment has been above its historical average of 30%.
Individual investors continue to fret about the direction of stock prices. Concerns about the pace of economic growth, worries about European sovereign debt, frustration with Washington and volatile market conditions are combining to keep bearish sentiment at historically high levels.
This week�s special question asked AAII members where they foresee the U.S. economy headed over the next six months. The majority of respondents thought the economy would expand, albeit at a slow pace. A minority are expecting the U.S. to fall into a double-dip recession, while a few believe the pace of economic expansion will accelerate.

More U.K. Bank Downgrades to Come, SocGen�s Calenti Says 8:14
   Today�s cuts an interim measure; U.K. banks hurt by financial crisis, unlikely to strengthen in S/T as economy slows, SocGen�s Hank Calenti says in note.
� NOTE: Moody�s earlier cut ratings of 12 U.K. financial institutions, 9 Portuguese banks; see: {NSN LSOP816JIJW0 <go>}; {NSN LSONFJ6JIJUQ <GO>}
� Stoxx 600 banks index falls for 1st day in 3; Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, RBS drop; Standard Chartered gains


*Special thanks to Option Radar, BMO Capital, MEB Options, Bloomberg, Reuters, Optionistics, LiveVolPro, CBOE, AMEX, Option Monster, T.O.P. group, and all of the options desks and traders we work with to provide the option flow! 

 No position at this time. Position declarations are believed to be accurate at time of writing but may change at any time and without notice.

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