Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Trade Idea - FCX short
SPY is making new highs yet FCX, a market leader, is below its 50 day moving average. The 20 day moving average which has been trending up since August is now pointing down and crossed below the 50 day moving average. Classic bearish divergence but the market and FCX are still in up trends.
Therefore, I don't want to risk much capital in case we continue to melt up. I like the May 50/45 1x2 put ratio spread for even or a small debit (experienced traders could leg into this for a credit). In the chart above $45 is roughly where the 200 day moving average is and there is support at $44. The risk reward on expiration looks like this:
Also noteworthy that you can do this exact trade in August for a credit. The downside to this trade is that it will require some margin since the trade is naked short a put but you could fly it up for roughly $0.58. Also important to remember that you are short vega so a huge move up in the VIX and/or implied volatility in FCX could hurt the trade. Projected earnings are 4/12.
Disclosure: No position, no plan on initiating a position in the next 72 hours